CONCACAF qualifiers Russia 2018

The road to Russia 2018 has officially started this January when the draw for the first round of the CONCACAF qualifiers took place in Miami.

A long journey for more than 200 national teams that will start next month with the following games:

Bahamas - Bermuda
British Virgin Islands - Dominica
Barbados - U.S. Virgin Islands
Turk & Caicos - St. Kitts & Nevis
Nicaragua - Anguilla
Belize - Cayman Islands
Curazao - Montserrat

A home and away system that will already eliminate 7 teams from the run.

The winners of this round will join the teams ranked from 9th to 21st in the FIFA Ranking within the CONCACAF zone to play another home and away round in June 2015.

Here is the list of teams entering in the second round:

Canada
Cuba
Aruba
Dominican Rep.
El Salvador
Surinam
Guatemala
St. Vicent & Granadines
St. Lucia
Grenada
Antigua & Barbuda
Guyana
Puerto Rico

The 10 winners of this second round will join Jamaica and Haiti for yet a third home and away round that will qualify only 6 teams for the fourth Round, where the big guys will join (U.S.A, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama and Trinidad & Tobago).

Fourth round will be the first Round Robin phase of this process, with 3 groups of 4 teams each, where the best two teams of each group will advance to the Final Hexagonal Round, after playing home and away the other teams in their group.

The Final Round will keep the same format as the past years, with 6 teams facing each other in a Round Robin format, home and away. The first three teams will get the tickets to Russia, while the fourth placed team will have to face an intercontinental play off round to get their right to participate in the World Cup.

Once that is clarified, lets talk about the chances of Team Canada.

The fact that FIFA decided to include three home and away rounds put a lot of stones in Canada's way. What could seem an easy smells to me like an unexpected trap. Whenever you are in a Round Robin process you can allow yourself a little disappointment. Meaning losing one game is not the end of the World. You have 5 more games to recover.

But in a home and away series, you lose one game and you are 50% out of the tournament. From the first rounds, Canada, together with El Salvador and Guatemala are the Big Boys. Historically these teams have had some success somehow, either reaching the finals (Canada and El Salvador) or getting really close. They have international players winning the bread in foreign leagues and in general, they are the three teams that I see should qualify for sure for the Fourth Round at least.

Any other team will be extra motivated to play and not to mention to eliminate any of these three countries in the first rounds. Last time it was Trinidad and Tobago, a team that already participated in the 2006 World Cup, getting their ass kicked in the second round, when they were mega ultra favorites, by Guyana. A team that, before eliminating Trinidad and Tobago, did literally nothing.

FIFA rankings don't lie and some teams that may sound like a piece of cake, could actually be really though to defeat (look at Antigua & Barbuda, ranked 95, while Canada is ranked 112).

I mean that if the draw sends Canada to play against St. Kitts, Aruba or St. Vincent, it is not going to be an easy one.

Team Canada will have to protect the house, make sure that the rivals don't score in Canadian soil and then be totally aggressive when playing away. Goals scored in foreign soil can be the difference.

In 2003 when a guy named Jose Mourinho (don't know if you guys heard of him) was coaching FC Porto, his idea to make his team reach the UEFA Champions League final (and, eventually, win it blowing out AS Monaco by 3-0) was to protect the house and bite away.

The Semifinal game against Deportivo Coruna ended up with a 0-0 tie in Porto. All the press and fans of Deportivo were celebrating. Mourinho was very calm in the press conference and said "Maybe you guys are too happy about this, maybe you are celebrating a bit before you should". In the second leg, FC Porto won in Coruna 0-1, qualifying for the final.

Team Canada should apply that philosophy and should never, under any circumstances, underestimate any rivals they may come across in the first two rounds. Step by step, game by game. Humble. Working hard.

It is going to be a long journey. Lets not see it end before time.